Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 1
Brighton21:00
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Kauno ŽalgirisMost likelyBrighton win · 95%
Best price1.04 Betano
Prediction
95%1Brightonmarket 96%
4%XDrawmarket 3%
1%2Kauno Žalgirismarket 1%
Brighton-1.9 ppDraw+1.7 ppKauno Žalgiris+0.2 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Brightonpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 11% more than the typical book | Kauno Žalgirispays 41% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.03 | 17.00 | 41.00 |
| Betano | 1.04best | 15.00 | 55.00 |
| Betfair | 1.03 | 20.00best | 71.00best |
| Marathonbet | 1.01 | 15.75 | 48.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Brighton at 1.04 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Brighton
- W2-0SUN
- W3-0ARS
- W5-0COV
- D1-1LEE
- L3-4CHE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Kauno Žalgiris
- W1-0BEI
- L0-3BEI
- L1-2DZ
- L0-5DZ
- W1-0KK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Brighton
No reported absences.
Kauno Žalgiris
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.06last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 8
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 18.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Kauno Žalgiris
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.4last 8
- Shots
- 8.0last 5
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 8
- Fouls
- 15.3last 3
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 8
Referee profile
- Referee
- M. Redder
- Yellows / game
- 3.5
- Matches officiated
- 38
Line movement
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Kauno Žalgiris—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Brighton result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge-43.9Pi-rating edge0.74Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)512Recent form (home)9.80Recent form (away)4.52Away form (away)3.41
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.