Brighton vs Newcastle prediction
Premier LeagueRound 12
Brighton15:05
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
NewcastleMost likelyBrighton win · 54%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Brighton win
Oddbert gives Brighton a 54% chance of winning.
54%Brighton
25%Draw
21%Newcastle
In 100 matches like this, Brighton would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, Brighton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Brighton win 54, Draw 25, Newcastle win 21.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
54%1BrightonBrighton win
25%XDrawDraw
21%2NewcastleNewcastle win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Brighton meet Newcastle. The model leans toward Brighton, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and League id. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Brighton (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Brighton
- W2-0BRE
- W1-0GET
- W1-0MC
- L0-2LIV
- D0-0FJ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Newcastle
- D1-1FUL
- L0-1EVE
- W2-0CP
- L0-1AV
- L1-4COV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Brighton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Newcastle
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Brighton 2Draws 1Newcastle 1
- NEW 3-1 BRI
- BRI 2-1 NEW
- BRI 1-1 NEW
- NEW 0-1 BRI
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 9 / 10
- BTTS
- 0 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 18.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- P. Groß3G 4A10 apps
- C. Kostoulas3G 2A7 apps
- G. Rutter2G 2A9 apps
Newcastle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Key players
- H. Barnes2G 2A10 apps
- A. Elanga2G 0A6 apps
- J. Willock2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Newcastle—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Brighton, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and League id. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.24League id39.0Clean-sheet streak (home)3.00Home form (home)10.5Defensive xG form (away)1.54Home advantage (team-tuned)79.2
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.