Bristol City vs Blackburn prediction
ChampionshipRound 10Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City20:45
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
BlackburnMost likelyBristol City win · 46%
Best price2.02 Dafabet
Prediction
46%1Bristol Citymarket 49%
27%XDrawmarket 27%
27%2Blackburnmarket 24%
Bristol City-3.0 ppDraw+0.7 ppBlackburn+2.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Bristol Citypays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Blackburnpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betvictor | 1.95 | 3.60best | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.02best | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.58 | 3.60 |
| Onexbet | 1.95 | 3.58 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.58 | 3.93best |
| Sbo | 1.99 | 3.02 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bristol City at 2.02 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bristol City
- D1-1CHA
- W1-0WAT
- L0-1LIN
- L1-4SOU
- W2-1BUR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Blackburn
- W2-1CAR
- D2-2POR
- W3-1MIL
- L1-2SU
- L1-2PRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bristol City
No reported absences.
Blackburn
No reported absences.
Head to head
Bristol City 2Draws 0Blackburn 2
- BLA 1-2 BC
- BC 0-1 BLA
- BC 2-1 BLA
- BLA 3-0 BC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bristol City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Blackburn
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.06last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- David Webb
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Line movement
Bristol City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Blackburn—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bristol City result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.59Defensive xG form (home)1.00Pi-rating edge0.17Attacking xG form (away)1.26Recent form (home)4.36League id40.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.