Bristol City vs Wrexham prediction
ChampionshipRound 17Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City20:45
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
WrexhamMost likelyWrexham win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Wrexham win
Oddbert gives Wrexham a 41% chance of winning.
38%Bristol City
21%Draw
41%Wrexham
In 100 matches like this, Wrexham would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Wrexham doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bristol City win 38, Draw 21, Wrexham win 41.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
38%1Bristol CityBristol City win
21%XDrawDraw
41%2WrexhamWrexham win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Wrexham (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bristol City
- L0-5NOR
- L1-2WOL
- W3-2BOL
- D0-0SC
- L0-1SU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Wrexham
- D1-1WOL
- W2-0MID
- L0-1SU
- L0-2BLA
- W4-1PRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bristol City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Wrexham
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bristol City 0Draws 1Wrexham 1
- BC 2-2 WRE
- WRE 2-0 BC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bristol City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.53last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- S. Twine3G 0A8 apps
- D. Ballard2G 0A10 apps
- Rio Cardines0G 2A10 apps
Wrexham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- K. Moore3G 2A10 apps
- O. Rathbone2G 1A8 apps
- B. Whiteman1G 2A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 27,000
Line movement
Bristol City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Wrexham—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Wrexham result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-84.2Expected goals (away)1.35Expected goals (home)1.28Home advantage (team-tuned)5.53Home form (home)1.88Recent form (home)2.24
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.