Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League C - 5Hristo Botev Stadium
Bulgaria20:45
Fri 13 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
IcelandMost likelyIceland win · 51%
Best price1.88 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Iceland win
Oddbert gives Iceland a 51% chance of winning.
23%Bulgaria
26%Draw
51%Iceland
In 100 matches like this, Iceland would win about 51. In the other 49 or so, Iceland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bulgaria win 23, Draw 26, Iceland win 51.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
23%1BulgariaBulgaria winmarket 21%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
51%2IcelandIceland winmarket 53%
Our model vs market
Bulgaria +1.7 ppDraw -0.3 ppIceland -1.4 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Bulgaria meet Iceland. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Iceland; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Bulgariapays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Icelandpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.60best | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.50 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33best | 3.56 | 1.88best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Iceland at 1.88 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bulgaria
- W2-0LUX
- L0-3ICE
- D0-0EST
- L1-2LUX
- D2-2MOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Iceland
- D0-0EST
- W3-0BUL
- W3-0LUX
- D1-1EST
- L0-3ARG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bulgaria
Absence data is not available for this match.
Iceland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bulgaria 0Draws 0Iceland 1
- ICE 3-0 BUL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bulgaria
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Georgi Rusev1G 1A5 apps
- R. Kirilov1G 0A2 apps
- F. Krastev1G 0A4 apps
Iceland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- O. Óskarsson5G 2A6 apps
- A. Guðjohnsen2G 1A5 apps
- M. Ellertsson1G 1A7 apps
Weather
- Temperature
- 19°C
- Conditions
- Clouds
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 22,000
Line movement
Bulgaria—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Iceland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Iceland; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1360Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.