Burnley vs Birmingham prediction
ChampionshipRound 17Turf Moor
Burnley20:45
Wed 25 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BirminghamMost likelyBirmingham win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Birmingham win
Oddbert gives Birmingham a 49% chance of winning.
31%Burnley
20%Draw
49%Birmingham
In 100 matches like this, Birmingham would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Birmingham doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Burnley win 31, Draw 20, Birmingham win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1BurnleyBurnley win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2BirminghamBirmingham win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Birmingham (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Burnley
- L4-5CAR
- D1-1QPR
- D0-0POR
- L1-4LIN
- L1-2WOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Birmingham
- W2-1SWA
- W3-0MIL
- W3-1LIN
- L0-1CAR
- W3-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Burnley
Absence data is not available for this match.
Birmingham
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Burnley
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.94last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- L. Ramazani4G 1A10 apps
- Lucas Pires0G 5A10 apps
- Z. Amdouni3G 0A5 apps
Birmingham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.31last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- L. Millar4G 3A10 apps
- A. Priske5G 0A6 apps
- J. Stansfield3G 1A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Turf Moor, Burnley
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 22,546
Line movement
Burnley—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Birmingham—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Birmingham result here; the model's main factors are Home advantage (team-tuned) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Home advantage (team-tuned)17.1Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-143Recent form (away)8.57What's at stake (away)0.16What's at stake (home)0.17Attacking xG form (home)1.53
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.