Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
ChampionshipRound 13Turf Moor
Burnley16:00
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
PortsmouthMost likelyPortsmouth win · 35%
Prediction
35%1Burnley
29%XDraw
36%2Portsmouth
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Burnley
- W4-0WAT
- D1-1DER
- L1-3SWA
- D1-1WRE
- L1-2BC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Portsmouth
- L0-1SOU
- D2-2BLA
- D0-0CHA
- W2-0CAR
- L0-2DER
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Burnley
No reported absences.
Portsmouth
No reported absences.
Head to head
Burnley 1Draws 1Portsmouth 0
- POR 0-0 BUR
- BUR 2-1 POR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Burnley
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.23last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Portsmouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.29last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Turf Moor, Burnley
Line movement
Burnley—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Portsmouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Portsmouth result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)6.94Home advantage (team-tuned)18.9Pi-rating edge0.25Home form (home)2.92What's at stake (away)0.08Defensive xG form (away)0.94
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.