Burnley vs Wolves prediction
ChampionshipRound 11Turf Moor
Burnley21:00
Fri 16 Oct
Prediction T-24h
WolvesMost likelyWolves win · 41%
Best price2.20 Dafabet
Prediction
32%1Burnleymarket 30%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
41%2Wolvesmarket 44%
Burnley+2.0 ppDraw+1.0 ppWolves-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Burnley | Draw | Wolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 3.20best | 3.65best | 2.20best |
| Onexbet | 3.11 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Wolves at 2.20 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Burnley
- W4-0WAT
- D1-1DER
- L1-3SWA
- D1-1WRE
- L1-2BC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Wolves
- L0-1MID
- W1-0WB
- W1-0SU
- D2-2BIR
- L2-4WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Burnley
No reported absences.
Wolves
No reported absences.
Head to head
Burnley 1Draws 1Wolves 0
- BUR 1-1 WOL
- WOL 2-3 BUR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Burnley
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.23last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Wolves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Turf Moor, Burnley
Line movement
Burnley—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Wolves—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Wolves result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-11.8Home advantage (team-tuned)18.9Attacking xG form (away)1.51What's at stake (away)0.08Attacking xG form (home)1.16
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.