Cagliari vs AC Milan prediction
Serie ARound 13Unipol Domus
Cagliari18:30
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AC MilanMost likelyAC Milan win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AC Milan win
Oddbert gives AC Milan a 56% chance of winning.
22%Cagliari
22%Draw
56%AC Milan
In 100 matches like this, AC Milan would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, AC Milan doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Cagliari win 22, Draw 22, AC Milan win 56.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
22%1CagliariCagliari win
22%XDrawDraw
56%2AC MilanAC Milan win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Cagliari meet AC Milan. The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for AC Milan (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Cagliari
- W1-0FRO
- L1-2LAZ
- L2-4AR
- L0-2BOL
- L0-4MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AC Milan
- W2-1GEN
- L0-2FT
- W3-1INT
- L2-4BOL
- W2-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Cagliari
Absence data is not available for this match.
AC Milan
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Cagliari 1Draws 2AC Milan 1
- AM 1-2 CAG
- CAG 0-1 AM
- AM 1-1 CAG
- CAG 3-3 AM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Cagliari
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.24last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Key players
- D. Maldini5G 0A10 apps
- P. Mendy1G 2A10 apps
- M'Bala Nzola2G 0A4 apps
AC Milan
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Rabiot4G 3A8 apps
- A. Cissè6G 0A8 apps
- Diego Moreira2G 3A7 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Unipol Domus, Cagliari
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 16,416
Line movement
Cagliari—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AC Milan—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Home advantage (team-tuned)26.9Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-127Pi-rating edge-0.59Expected goals (home)0.87League id135Attacking xG form (away)1.45
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.