Cagliari vs Bologna prediction
Serie ARound 8Unipol Domus
Cagliari15:00
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
BolognaMost likelyBologna win · 38%
Best price2.52 Onexbet
Prediction
32%1Cagliarimarket 29%
30%XDrawmarket 32%
38%2Bolognamarket 39%
Cagliari+3.0 ppDraw-1.6 ppBologna-1.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Cagliaripays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Bolognapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.04 | 2.44 |
| Onexbet | 3.35best | 3.13best | 2.52best |
| Pinnacle | 3.28 | 2.94 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bologna at 2.52 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Cagliari
- D1-1JUV
- W1-0UDI
- W2-1ATA
- W1-0LEC
- L0-1INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bologna
- W2-1LEC
- D1-1TOR
- L0-1NAP
- D2-2SAS
- L0-1ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Cagliari
No reported absences.
Bologna
No reported absences.
Head to head
Cagliari 0Draws 1Bologna 3
- BOL 0-0 CAG
- CAG 0-2 BOL
- BOL 2-1 CAG
- CAG 0-2 BOL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Cagliari
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Key players
- Daniel Maldini1G 0A1 apps
- P. Mendy0G 1A1 apps
Bologna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.23last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Line movement
Cagliari—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bologna—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bologna result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)3.92What's at stake (home)0.03League id135Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)23.3Recent form (home)6.82Away form (away)6.93
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.