Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
EredivisieRound 9Kooi Stadion
Cambuur14:30
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AZ AlkmaarMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 69%
Best price1.40 Pinnacle
Prediction
14%1Cambuurmarket 12%
18%XDrawmarket 16%
68%2AZ Alkmaarmarket 72%
Cambuur+1.6 ppDraw+1.4 ppAZ Alkmaar-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Cambuurpays 9% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | AZ Alkmaarpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 7.00 | 5.30 | 1.39 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 5.50best | 1.30 |
| Betvictor | 7.00 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
| Marathonbet | 7.30 | 5.05 | 1.35 |
| Onexbet | 7.65best | 5.29 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.50 | 5.35 | 1.40best |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AZ Alkmaar at 1.40 (Pinnacle).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Cambuur
- W1-0PZ
- D1-1ADH
- W3-0NN
- D2-2TEL
- L1-4TWE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2FEY
- W1-0TEL
- D1-1WI
- W3-2HEE
- W5-2GAE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Cambuur
No reported absences.
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Cambuur
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.96last 7
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 9
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Line movement
Cambuur—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a AZ Alkmaar result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-226Pi-rating edge-0.53Rest-days edge-0.82Recent form (home)5.90Clean-sheet streak (home)1.00Home advantage (team-tuned)32.4
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.