Cardiff vs Lincoln prediction
ChampionshipRound 19
Cardiff16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LincolnMost likelyCardiff win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Cardiff win
Oddbert gives Cardiff a 56% chance of winning.
56%Cardiff
21%Draw
23%Lincoln
In 100 matches like this, Cardiff would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Cardiff doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Cardiff win 56, Draw 21, Lincoln win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1CardiffCardiff win
21%XDrawDraw
23%2LincolnLincoln win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Cardiff (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Cardiff
- W5-4BUR
- D3-3WH
- L0-3WOL
- W1-0BIR
- D2-2MID
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lincoln
- L1-2QPR
- L0-1WAT
- L1-3BIR
- W4-1BUR
- D2-2MIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Cardiff
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lincoln
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Cardiff
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- J. Moylan9G 3A10 apps
- O. Tanner3G 3A10 apps
- Y. Salech4G 1A7 apps
Lincoln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.55last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- F. Draper2G 1A9 apps
- M. Ladefoged2G 1A6 apps
- B. House1G 2A8 apps
Line movement
Cardiff—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lincoln—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Cardiff result here; the model's main factors are Recent form (away) and Pi-rating edge. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (away)1.88Pi-rating edge0.01Defensive xG form (home)1.99What's at stake (away)0.20Away form (away)3.44What's at stake (home)0.06
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.