Casa Pia vs SC Braga prediction
Primeira LigaRound 12
Casa Pia21:15
Mon 30 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SC BragaMost likelySC Braga win · 66%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: SC Braga win
Oddbert gives SC Braga a 66% chance of winning.
11%Casa Pia
23%Draw
66%SC Braga
In 100 matches like this, SC Braga would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, SC Braga doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Casa Pia win 11, Draw 23, SC Braga win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1Casa PiaCasa Pia win
23%XDrawDraw
66%2SC BragaSC Braga win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for SC Braga (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Casa Pia
- D1-1ALV
- L0-2SC
- W2-0EST
- L0-1SC
- W2-1EST
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Braga
- W1-0RA
- D0-0AAR
- W3-0FAM
- L0-1NAC
- W2-0GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Casa Pia
Absence data is not available for this match.
SC Braga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Casa Pia 2Draws 0SC Braga 2
- CP 0-1 SB
- SB 4-0 CP
- CP 2-1 SB
- SB 1-2 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Casa Pia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.83last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.60last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- Henrique Araújo1G 2A10 apps
- Silvi2G 0A9 apps
- L. Ofori1G 1A10 apps
SC Braga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.41last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 14.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Víctor Gómez1G 2A10 apps
- Pau Victor2G 0A10 apps
- Ricardo Horta2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Casa Pia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SC Braga—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a SC Braga result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.83Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-206Home advantage (team-tuned)10.5What's at stake (away)0.15Home form (home)1.09Defensive xG form (home)1.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.