Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction
La LigaRound 9Municipal de Balaídos
Celta Vigo16:15
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AlavesMost likelyCelta Vigo win · 45%
Best price2.08 Onexbet
Prediction
45%1Celta Vigomarket 48%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
27%2Alavesmarket 25%
Celta Vigo-3.0 ppDraw+0.5 ppAlaves+2.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Celta Vigopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Alavespays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betvictor | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.48 | 3.84 |
| Onexbet | 2.08best | 3.58best | 3.94best |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.41 | 3.91 |
| Sbo | 1.99 | 3.02 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Celta Vigo at 2.08 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Celta Vigo
- D0-0ELC
- W5-0RS
- D1-1MAL
- D1-1GET
- D0-0RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Alaves
- L1-2AM
- D0-0AC
- L0-1VAL
- L1-2RS
- W5-2OSA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Celta Vigo
No reported absences.
Alaves
No reported absences.
Head to head
Celta Vigo 2Draws 1Alaves 1
- CV 3-4 ALA
- ALA 0-1 CV
- ALA 1-1 CV
- CV 2-1 ALA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Celta Vigo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 10
- Shots
- 9.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Alaves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo
Line movement
Celta Vigo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Alaves—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Celta Vigo result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Pi-rating edge0.29Away form (away)4.25Defensive xG form (home)0.74What's at stake (away)0.02Recent form (home)4.52
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.