Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Celta Vigo18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BournemouthMost likelyBournemouth win · 66%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bournemouth win
Oddbert gives Bournemouth a 66% chance of winning.
11%Celta Vigo
23%Draw
66%Bournemouth
In 100 matches like this, Bournemouth would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, Bournemouth doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Celta Vigo win 11, Draw 23, Bournemouth win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1Celta VigoCelta Vigo win
23%XDrawDraw
66%2BournemouthBournemouth win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Celta Vigo meet Bournemouth. The model leans toward Bournemouth, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bournemouth (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Celta Vigo
- D0-0LEV
- L1-2USG
- L0-3RV
- D0-0RB
- W2-1CEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bournemouth
- W2-1IPS
- W3-1SP
- W2-0LEE
- W3-0MU
- W3-0AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Celta Vigo
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bournemouth
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Celta Vigo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- Javi Rodríguez3G 1A8 apps
- Hugo Álvarez1G 3A10 apps
- Pablo Durán3G 0A8 apps
Bournemouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- Evanilson7G 2A10 apps
- Rayan4G 0A10 apps
- J. Kluivert2G 2A7 apps
Line movement
Celta Vigo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bournemouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bournemouth, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.44Home advantage (team-tuned)27.2Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-225What's at stake (home)0.00Defensive xG form (home)0.96What's at stake (away)0.11
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.