Celta Vigo vs Real Betis prediction
La LigaRound 10
Celta Vigo16:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Real BetisMost likelyReal Betis win · 40%
Best price2.74 Onexbet
Prediction
33%1Celta Vigomarket 35%
27%XDrawmarket 28%
40%2Real Betismarket 37%
Celta Vigo-2.6 ppDraw-0.4 ppReal Betis+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Celta Vigopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Real Betispays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.67 |
| Onexbet | 2.74best | 3.49best | 2.74best |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.44 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Real Betis at 2.74 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
12.49units · 1.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Celta Vigo
- D0-0ELC
- W5-0RS
- D1-1MAL
- D1-1GET
- D0-0RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Betis
- W5-2OSA
- D1-1DLC
- W1-0GET
- W2-1VIL
- W3-2LIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Celta Vigo
No reported absences.
Real Betis
No reported absences.
Head to head
Celta Vigo 1Draws 3Real Betis 0
- RB 1-1 CV
- CV 1-1 RB
- CV 3-2 RB
- RB 2-2 CV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Celta Vigo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 10
- Shots
- 9.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Real Betis
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.76last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- Isco2G 0A1 apps
- J. A. Morante1G 0A1 apps
- Abdessamad Ezzalzouli1G 0A1 apps
Line movement
Celta Vigo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Betis—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Real Betis result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-121Pi-rating edge-0.13Clean-sheet streak (home)2.00What's at stake (away)0.03Defensive xG form (away)1.33Attacking xG form (away)2.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.