Celta Vigo vs Villarreal prediction
La LigaRound 14
Celta Vigo17:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
VillarrealMost likelyVillarreal win · 38%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Villarreal win
Oddbert gives Villarreal a 38% chance of winning.
36%Celta Vigo
26%Draw
38%Villarreal
In 100 matches like this, Villarreal would win about 38. In the other 62 or so, Villarreal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Celta Vigo win 36, Draw 26, Villarreal win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
36%1Celta VigoCelta Vigo win
26%XDrawDraw
38%2VillarrealVillarreal win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Celta Vigo meet Villarreal. The model leans only slightly toward Villarreal in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and What's at stake (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Villarreal (38%), doesn't happen in about 62 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Celta Vigo
- D0-0LEV
- L1-2USG
- L0-3RV
- D0-0RB
- W2-1CEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Villarreal
- W2-0GET
- L0-6PSG
- L0-1ESP
- W2-1VAL
- L3-4LIV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Celta Vigo
Absence data is not available for this match.
Villarreal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Celta Vigo 1Draws 1Villarreal 2
- VIL 2-1 CV
- CV 1-1 VIL
- CV 3-0 VIL
- VIL 4-3 CV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Celta Vigo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- Javi Rodríguez3G 1A8 apps
- Hugo Álvarez1G 3A10 apps
- Pablo Durán3G 0A8 apps
Villarreal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.84last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.21last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- Alberto Moleiro2G 3A10 apps
- Ayoze Pérez1G 4A10 apps
- G. Mikautadze4G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Celta Vigo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Villarreal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Villarreal in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and What's at stake (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-66.3Attacking xG form (away)1.31What's at stake (home)0.09What's at stake (away)0.01League id140Defensive xG form (home)0.96
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.