Charlton vs Lincoln prediction
ChampionshipRound 17The Valley
Charlton20:45
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LincolnMost likelyCharlton win · 47%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Charlton win
Oddbert gives Charlton a 47% chance of winning.
47%Charlton
23%Draw
30%Lincoln
In 100 matches like this, Charlton would win about 47. In the other 53 or so, Charlton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Charlton win 47, Draw 23, Lincoln win 30.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
47%1CharltonCharlton win
23%XDrawDraw
30%2LincolnLincoln win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Charlton (47%), doesn't happen in about 53 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Charlton
- W2-1SU
- L0-1BOL
- L0-3MID
- L1-3NOR
- L0-2WAT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lincoln
- L1-2QPR
- L0-1WAT
- L1-3BIR
- W4-1BUR
- D2-2MIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Charlton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lincoln
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Charlton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.14last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 9.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.5last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- T. Campbell1G 1A10 apps
- M. Alli1G 1A9 apps
- I. Mesík1G 0A7 apps
Lincoln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.55last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- F. Draper2G 1A9 apps
- M. Ladefoged2G 1A6 apps
- B. House1G 2A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- The Valley, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 27,111
Line movement
Charlton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lincoln—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Charlton result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.18Expected goals (away)0.91What's at stake (home)0.13Recent form (away)1.88Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)97.4Defensive xG form (home)1.58
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.