Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction
Premier LeagueRound 13Stamford Bridge
Chelsea21:00
Wed 2 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Crystal PalaceMost likelyChelsea win · 52%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Chelsea win
Oddbert gives Chelsea a 52% chance of winning.
52%Chelsea
25%Draw
23%Crystal Palace
In 100 matches like this, Chelsea would win about 52. In the other 48 or so, Chelsea doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Chelsea win 52, Draw 25, Crystal Palace win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
52%1ChelseaChelsea win
25%XDrawDraw
23%2Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Chelsea meet Crystal Palace. The model leans toward Chelsea, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Chelsea (52%), doesn't happen in about 48 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Chelsea
- L0-1SUN
- W2-0MU
- L0-2TOT
- W2-0EVE
- W5-1BOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Crystal Palace
- L1-3LIV
- D1-11H
- L0-2TOT
- L0-2NEW
- D2-2BEI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Chelsea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Crystal Palace
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Chelsea 1Draws 3Crystal Palace 0
- CP 1-3 CHE
- CHE 0-0 CP
- CP 1-1 CHE
- CHE 1-1 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Chelsea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Joao Pedro5G 3A6 apps
- M. Rogers5G 1A10 apps
- C. Palmer3G 3A10 apps
Crystal Palace
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.90last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Yeremy Pino4G 0A10 apps
- D. Kamada3G 0A10 apps
- A. Wharton0G 3A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,841
Line movement
Chelsea—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Crystal Palace—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Chelsea, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Expected goals (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)2.21Expected goals (home)2.29What's at stake (away)0.12Defensive xG form (away)1.80Attacking xG form (away)0.99League id39.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.