Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14Stamford Bridge
Chelsea16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LiverpoolMost likelyChelsea win · 37%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Chelsea win
Oddbert gives Chelsea a 37% chance of winning.
37%Chelsea
26%Draw
37%Liverpool
In 100 matches like this, Chelsea would win about 37. In the other 63 or so, Chelsea doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Chelsea win 37, Draw 26, Liverpool win 37.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
37%1ChelseaChelsea win
26%XDrawDraw
37%2LiverpoolLiverpool win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Chelsea meet Liverpool. The model leans only slightly toward Chelsea in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Away form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Chelsea (37%), doesn't happen in about 63 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Chelsea
- L0-1SUN
- W2-0MU
- L0-2TOT
- W2-0EVE
- W5-1BOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Liverpool
- W3-1CP
- L2-3FEN
- L0-1ARS
- W2-0BRI
- W4-3VIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Chelsea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Liverpool
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Chelsea 2Draws 1Liverpool 1
- LIV 1-1 CHE
- CHE 2-1 LIV
- CHE 3-1 LIV
- LIV 2-1 CHE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Chelsea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Joao Pedro5G 3A6 apps
- M. Rogers5G 1A10 apps
- C. Palmer3G 3A10 apps
Liverpool
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.0last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- B. Barcola3G 3A10 apps
- A. Isak5G 0A8 apps
- F. Wirtz2G 3A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,841
Line movement
Chelsea—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Liverpool—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Chelsea in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Away form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.62Away form (away)8.31Pi-rating edge-0.17Fixture congestion (home)0.00Defensive xG form (away)1.48League id39.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.