Chelsea W vs Manchester City W prediction
FA WSLWomenRound 10Stamford Bridge
Chelsea W15:00
Sat 14 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Manchester City WMost likelyChelsea W win · 56%
Best price1.67 Betfair
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Chelsea W win
Oddbert gives Chelsea W a 56% chance of winning.
56%Chelsea W
22%Draw
22%Manchester City W
In 100 matches like this, Chelsea W would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Chelsea W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Chelsea W win 56, Draw 22, Manchester City W win 22.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1Chelsea WChelsea W winmarket 58%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 22%
22%2Manchester City WManchester City W winmarket 20%
Our model vs market
Chelsea W -1.6 ppDraw +0.4 ppManchester City W +1.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Chelsea Wpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Manchester City W |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67best | 4.10best | 4.20best |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.92 | 4.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Chelsea W at 1.67 (Betfair).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Chelsea W (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Chelsea W
- D0-0HW
- D1-1EW
- W6-0CAW
- W2-0RW
- W3-1CPW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester City W
- W4-1IMW
- W5-0WHW
- W2-1LCL
- D1-1PSG
- D1-1MUW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Chelsea W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Manchester City W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Chelsea W 4Draws 1Manchester City W 3
- MCW 5-1 CW
- CW 2-1 MCW
- CW 3-0 MCW
- MCW 1-2 CW
- MCW 2-0 CW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Chelsea W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.51last 6
- xG against / game
- 0.65last 6
- Clean sheets
- 7 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.5last 10
- Shots
- 19.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 8.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- M. Malard5G 0A6 apps
- K. Walsh1G 3A5 apps
- A. Thompson1G 3A6 apps
Manchester City W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.17last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 6
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.2last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 8.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- K. Shaw8G 0A6 apps
- L. Hemp3G 5A5 apps
- A. Fujino1G 2A6 apps
Weather
- Temperature
- 8°C
- Conditions
- Clear
- Wind
- 6 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,841
Line movement
Chelsea W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Manchester City W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Chelsea W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (home) and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.82Expected goals (away)1.38Goal correlation-0.06
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.