Como vs AEK Athens FC prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Como21:00
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AEK Athens FCMost likelyComo win · 77%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Como win
Oddbert gives Como a 77% chance of winning.
77%Como
12%Draw
11%AEK Athens FC
In 100 matches like this, Como would win about 77. In the other 23 or so, Como doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Como win 77, Draw 12, AEK Athens FC win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
77%1ComoComo win
12%XDrawDraw
11%2AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Como meet AEK Athens FC. The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Como (77%), doesn't happen in about 23 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Como
- L0-2INT
- W9-1LEN
- W1-0VEN
- W3-1TOR
- W2-0SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AEK Athens FC
- L2-3RM
- L1-5MC
- L1-3SD
- W1-0LL
- W4-0LS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Como
Absence data is not available for this match.
AEK Athens FC
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Como
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.89last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.16last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- N. Paz5G 5A9 apps
- T. Douvikas8G 1A10 apps
- Jacobo Ramón Naveros2G 2A10 apps
AEK Athens FC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.52last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.76last 8
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.2last 10
- Shots
- 14.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Key players
- R. Marin3G 1A10 apps
- S. Pilios2G 2A10 apps
- B. Varga3G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Como—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AEK Athens FC—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.63Attacking xG form (home)2.01Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)311Home form (home)10.9Expected goals (away)1.47Expected goals (home)6.36
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.