Como vs Cagliari prediction
Serie ARound 12Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como15:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
CagliariMost likelyComo win · 70%
Best price1.38 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Como win
Oddbert gives Como a 70% chance of winning.
70%Como
19%Draw
11%Cagliari
In 100 matches like this, Como would win about 70. In the other 30 or so, Como doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Como win 70, Draw 19, Cagliari win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
70%1ComoComo winmarket 73%
19%XDrawDrawmarket 17%
11%2CagliariCagliari winmarket 10%
Our model vs market
Como -3.0 ppDraw +1.4 ppCagliari +1.6 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Como meet Cagliari. The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Comopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Cagliaripays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.38best | 5.20 | 7.70 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.34 | 5.40best | 8.70best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Como at 1.38 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Como (70%), doesn't happen in about 30 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Como
- L0-2INT
- W9-1LEN
- W1-0VEN
- W3-1TOR
- W2-0SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cagliari
- W1-0FRO
- L1-2LAZ
- L2-4AR
- L0-2BOL
- L0-4MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Como
Absence data is not available for this match.
Cagliari
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Como 2Draws 2Cagliari 0
- CAG 1-2 COM
- COM 0-0 CAG
- COM 3-1 CAG
- CAG 1-1 COM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Como
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.89last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.16last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- N. Paz5G 5A9 apps
- T. Douvikas8G 1A10 apps
- Jacobo Ramón Naveros2G 2A10 apps
Cagliari
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.24last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Key players
- D. Maldini5G 0A10 apps
- P. Mendy1G 2A10 apps
- M'Bala Nzola2G 0A4 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 13,602
Line movement
Como—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cagliari—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.05Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)341Attacking xG form (home)2.01Home form (home)10.6Defensive xG form (home)0.84Expected goals (away)0.60
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.