Coventry vs Newcastle prediction
Premier LeagueRound 6Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry21:00
Mon 12 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NewcastleMost likelyNewcastle win · 43%
Best price2.25 Dafabet
Prediction
30%1Coventrymarket 28%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
43%2Newcastlemarket 46%
Coventry+2.0 ppDraw+0.6 ppNewcastle-2.6 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (sharp books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Coventrypays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Newcastlepays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betvictor | 3.30 | 3.80best | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.25best |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.64 | 2.15 |
| Onexbet | 3.48best | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| Pinnacle | 3.47 | 3.69 | 2.13 |
| Sbo | 2.84 | 3.22 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Newcastle at 2.25 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Coventry
- W1-0NF
- L0-5BRI
- L0-1MC
- L0-1HC
- L0-3ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Newcastle
- W2-1HC
- L1-4LEE
- D2-2BOU
- W2-0TOT
- D2-2LIV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Coventry
No reported absences.
Newcastle
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Coventry
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.49last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 0.9last 9
Newcastle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- John Brooks
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Line movement
Coventry28%
Mon 12 Oct-1.7 pp
Draw26%
Mon 12 Oct-0.0 pp
Newcastle46%
Mon 12 Oct+1.7 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Newcastle result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)1.83Pi-rating edge0.31Away form (away)3.35Attacking xG form (away)1.07Home advantage (team-tuned)76.7Defensive xG form (home)1.73
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.