Croatia vs Czechia prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Croatia20:45
Sun 15 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
CzechiaMost likelyCroatia win · 70%
Best price1.36 Betfair
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Croatia win
Oddbert gives Croatia a 70% chance of winning.
70%Croatia
18%Draw
12%Czechia
In 100 matches like this, Croatia would win about 70. In the other 30 or so, Croatia doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Croatia win 70, Draw 18, Czechia win 12.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
70%1CroatiaCroatia winmarket 71%
18%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
12%2CzechiaCzechia winmarket 11%
Our model vs market
Croatia -1.1 ppDraw +0.4 ppCzechia +0.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 3 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Croatia meet Czechia. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Croatia; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Croatia | Draw | Czechia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.36best | 4.75best | 7.50best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Croatia at 1.36 (Betfair).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Croatia (70%), doesn't happen in about 30 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Croatia
- L1-2SPA
- L0-7ENG
- L1-4SPA
- W2-1CZE
- L1-2POR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Czechia
- L0-3ENG
- L1-3SPA
- L0-2ENG
- L1-2CRO
- L0-3MEX
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Croatia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Czechia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Croatia 2Draws 3Czechia 0
- CZE 1-2 CRO
- CZE 0-0 CRO
- CRO 5-1 CZE
- CRO 1-1 CZE
- CZE 2-2 CRO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Croatia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Key players
- I. Perišić2G 4A10 apps
- L. Modrić2G 1A10 apps
- P. Sučić1G 1A10 apps
Czechia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- L. Krejčí2G 0A6 apps
- A. Hložek0G 2A7 apps
- Jiří Sláma1G 0A4 apps
Line movement
Croatia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Czechia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Croatia; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1778Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.