Denmark vs Norway prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Denmark20:45
Tue 17 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
NorwayMost likelyDenmark win · 39%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Denmark win
Oddbert gives Denmark a 39% chance of winning.
39%Denmark
23%Draw
38%Norway
In 100 matches like this, Denmark would win about 39. In the other 61 or so, Denmark doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Denmark win 39, Draw 23, Norway win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
39%1DenmarkDenmark winmarket 39%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 22%
38%2NorwayNorway winmarket 39%
Our model vs market
Denmark +0.1 ppDraw +0.3 ppNorway -0.4 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Denmark (39%), doesn't happen in about 61 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Denmark
- W1-0WAL
- L2-4POR
- W2-0WAL
- L2-3NOR
- W2-1UKR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Norway
- L1-2POR
- L1-2WAL
- L1-2POR
- W3-2DEN
- L1-2ENG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Denmark
Absence data is not available for this match.
Norway
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Denmark 1Draws 0Norway 1
- NOR 3-2 DEN
- DEN 3-1 NOR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Denmark
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- M. Damsgaard4G 3A7 apps
- G. Isaksen4G 0A8 apps
- R. Højlund4G 0A8 apps
Norway
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 10 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Key players
- E. Haaland10G 0A9 apps
- M. Ødegaard0G 8A9 apps
- A. Schjelderup1G 3A10 apps
Line movement
Denmark—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Norway—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Denmark result here; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1835Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.