Derby vs Stoke City prediction
ChampionshipRound 11
Derby16:00
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Stoke CityMost likelyDerby win · 39%
Prediction
39%1Derby
28%XDraw
33%2Stoke City
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Derby
- D1-1WRE
- D1-1BUR
- L1-2BIR
- L0-1WB
- L0-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Stoke City
- W2-1BOL
- W2-1SU
- W2-1WAT
- D1-1CAR
- W4-0CHA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Derby
No reported absences.
Stoke City
No reported absences.
Head to head
Derby 1Draws 1Stoke City 2
- DER 2-0 SC
- SC 3-1 DER
- DER 0-0 SC
- SC 2-1 DER
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Stoke City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.98last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 14.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Line movement
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Stoke City—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Derby result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.30Defensive xG form (home)1.82Attacking xG form (away)1.15Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)13.0League id40.0Recent form (home)1.80
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.