Derby vs Watford prediction
ChampionshipRound 18
Derby16:00
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
WatfordMost likelyDerby win · 46%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Derby win
Oddbert gives Derby a 46% chance of winning.
46%Derby
22%Draw
32%Watford
In 100 matches like this, Derby would win about 46. In the other 54 or so, Derby doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Derby win 46, Draw 22, Watford win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
46%1DerbyDerby win
22%XDrawDraw
32%2WatfordWatford win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Derby (46%), doesn't happen in about 54 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Derby
- W3-1BOL
- L0-4NOR
- L1-4MIL
- D1-1SU
- L0-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Watford
- D0-0MID
- W1-0LIN
- L2-3NOR
- L0-1WOL
- W2-0CHA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Derby
Absence data is not available for this match.
Watford
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Derby 0Draws 0Watford 4
- WAT 2-0 DER
- DER 2-3 WAT
- DER 0-2 WAT
- WAT 2-1 DER
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.15last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.73last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- M. Fuseini1G 2A9 apps
- B. Clark2G 0A10 apps
- S. Szmodics1G 1A9 apps
Watford
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.94last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.82last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- M. Boadu2G 1A7 apps
- Iker Bravo0G 3A10 apps
- E. Kayembe1G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Watford—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Derby result here; the model's main factors are What's at stake (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (away)0.13Home advantage (team-tuned)8.45Clean-sheet streak (away)2.00Away form (away)0.26Defensive xG form (away)1.42Defensive xG form (home)2.08
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.