Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 2Stadion Maksimir
Dinamo Zagreb21:00
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AnderlechtMost likelyDinamo Zagreb win · 44%
Best price2.10 Betano
Prediction
44%1Dinamo Zagrebmarket 48%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
29%2Anderlechtmarket 26%
Dinamo Zagreb-3.4 ppDraw+0.6 ppAnderlecht+2.8 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Match previewAI · grounded
In this UEFA Europa League clash, Dinamo Zagreb face Anderlecht for the first time in their histories, with the model viewing the encounter as a tight, open contest that leans only slightly toward the home side. The calculated probabilities currently stand at 44% for a Dinamo Zagreb victory, 27% for a draw, and 29% for an Anderlecht win. These figures suggest a highly competitive match where neither side possesses a dominant statistical advantage. Interestingly, the model’s stance on Dinamo Zagreb is a little below the current market pricing, indicating that the probability of a home victory may be lower than general market expectations suggest. Several key factors are pulling the probabilities in different directions. Supporting the model's modest lean toward the home side are recent away form metrics and a slight Pi-rating edge for Dinamo Zagreb. However, these are tempered by the home team's attacking expected goals (xG) form, which acts as a counterweight and contributes to the overall narrow distribution of percentages. Recent momentum offers an interesting contrast heading into the fixture. Dinamo Zagreb’s form in their most recent five outings has been somewhat inconsistent, recording two wins, two draws, and a loss. In comparison, Anderlecht enters the match with significant positive momentum, having secured four victories in their last five matches, with only a single defeat in that span. Regarding personnel, neither side has reported injuries. It is important to note, however, that since confirmed lineups are not yet known, this lack of reports does not indicate that either team is at full strength. Both sides could still employ squad rotation or choose to rest key starters, factors that are not currently captured in these probabilities. As it stands, the numbers point to a closely contested matchup where any of the three outcomes remains well within the realm of possibility.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Dinamo Zagrebpays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Anderlechtpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.10best | 3.60 | 3.75best |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.70best | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.74 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Dinamo Zagreb at 2.10 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Dinamo Zagreb
- D0-0HBS
- L1-3VIK
- D2-2VIK
- W2-1K
- W5-0K
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Anderlecht
- L1-2LYO
- W3-0KA
- W3-0KA
- W3-2PAO
- W1-0PAO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Dinamo Zagreb
No reported absences.
Anderlecht
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Dinamo Zagreb
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 3
- xG against / game
- 2.01last 3
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 9
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 9
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Anderlecht
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 1
- xG against / game
- 1.27last 1
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 7
- Shots
- 17.0last 4
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 7
- Fouls
- 17.3last 7
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 8
Referee profile
- Referee
- Orel Grinfeld
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Line movement
Dinamo Zagreb—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Anderlecht—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model presents this Europa League encounter as a tightly contested affair, assigning Dinamo Zagreb a 44% probability of victory, while Anderlecht sits at 29% and the draw at 27%. This narrow split suggests a highly open match that functions essentially as a toss-up, with the model’s lean toward the hosts driven by a combination of their Pi-rating and Anderlecht’s recent away form. While the model favors Dinamo Zagreb, it remains slightly more conservative on their chances than the broader market consensus. Notably, Anderlecht enters the match with strong recent momentum, though the model balances this against Dinamo Zagreb's home attacking expected goals (xG) form, which works against the host's lean. With no reported injuries for either side, the final lineups remain subject to potential squad rotation.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (away)6.81Attacking xG form (home)4.48Pi-rating edge-0.10Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)17.9Home advantage (team-tuned)65.8Recent form (home)3.97
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.