Elche vs Atletico Madrid prediction
La LigaRound 14
Elche17:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Atletico MadridMost likelyAtletico Madrid win · 43%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Atletico Madrid win
Oddbert gives Atletico Madrid a 43% chance of winning.
31%Elche
26%Draw
43%Atletico Madrid
In 100 matches like this, Atletico Madrid would win about 43. In the other 57 or so, Atletico Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Elche win 31, Draw 26, Atletico Madrid win 43.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1ElcheElche win
26%XDrawDraw
43%2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Elche meet Atletico Madrid. The model leans only slightly toward Atletico Madrid in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Atletico Madrid (43%), doesn't happen in about 57 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Elche
- L0-2RB
- L0-1VAL
- W3-0RV
- D0-0VIL
- D0-0CV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2BAR
- L0-2BM
- W2-0LEV
- W1-0DLC
- D1-1VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Elche
Absence data is not available for this match.
Atletico Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Elche 1Draws 1Atletico Madrid 0
- ELC 3-2 AM
- AM 1-1 ELC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Elche
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.26last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 10
Key players
- Fer Niño6G 0A10 apps
- Tete Morente0G 3A10 apps
- Germán Valera2G 0A10 apps
Atletico Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Álex Baena2G 3A10 apps
- Álex Grimaldo3G 1A10 apps
- J. David2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Elche—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atletico Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Atletico Madrid in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.66Attacking xG form (away)1.08Defensive xG form (away)1.62League id140What's at stake (home)0.15Home advantage (team-tuned)112
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.