Estac Troyes vs Le Havre prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes20:45
Fri 20 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Le HavreMost likelyEstac Troyes win · 42%
Best price2.15 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Estac Troyes win
Oddbert gives Estac Troyes a 42% chance of winning.
42%Estac Troyes
27%Draw
31%Le Havre
In 100 matches like this, Estac Troyes would win about 42. In the other 58 or so, Estac Troyes doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Estac Troyes win 42, Draw 27, Le Havre win 31.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
42%1Estac TroyesEstac Troyes winmarket 46%
27%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
31%2Le HavreLe Havre winmarket 28%
Our model vs market
Estac Troyes -3.0 ppDraw +0.3 ppLe Havre +2.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Estac Troyes meet Le Havre. The model leans only slightly toward Estac Troyes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Recent form (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Estac Troyespays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Le Havrepays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15best | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.66best | 3.30best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Estac Troyes at 2.15 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Estac Troyes (42%), doesn't happen in about 58 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estac Troyes
- L0-1PSG
- W2-0LM
- D0-0TOU
- L1-3LEN
- L0-2MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Le Havre
- L0-2LOR
- L1-5PSG
- L3-4MAR
- L1-3AUX
- L0-1LIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estac Troyes
Absence data is not available for this match.
Le Havre
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estac Troyes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Key players
- A. Mille1G 1A10 apps
- T. Nkada1G 1A8 apps
- M. Diop1G 0A10 apps
Le Havre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.55last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- J. Maja4G 0A10 apps
- R. Fofana2G 1A8 apps
- M. Samatta2G 0A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 21,877
Line movement
Estac Troyes—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Le Havre—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Estac Troyes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Recent form (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)0.99Attacking xG form (away)1.71Pi-rating edge0.28League id61.0What's at stake (away)0.10Away form (away)2.46
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.