Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction
Ligue 1Round 7Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes20:45
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LensMost likelyLens win · 55%
Best price1.87 Onexbet
Prediction
20%1Estac Troyesmarket 23%
25%XDrawmarket 23%
55%2Lensmarket 54%
Estac Troyes-2.4 ppDraw+1.2 ppLens+1.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Estac Troyespays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Lenspays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Betvictor | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 3.90 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.94 | 1.82 |
| Onexbet | 4.30best | 4.04 | 1.87best |
| Pinnacle | 4.08 | 4.06best | 1.84 |
| Sbo | 3.52 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lens at 1.87 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
7.09units · 0.7% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estac Troyes
- L0-2MAR
- L0-2ANG
- L0-2LIL
- L2-6STR
- W2-1LOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lens
- W2-1LYO
- L1-2MON
- D2-2LM
- W3-2SP
- L0-1LOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estac Troyes
No reported absences.
Lens
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estac Troyes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 6
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 5
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 6
- BTTS
- 2 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 6
- Shots
- 14.8last 6
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 6
- Fouls
- 12.3last 6
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 5
Lens
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Line movement
Estac Troyes—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lens—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lens result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge-2.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-268Pi-rating edge-0.59Attacking xG form (away)2.93Attacking xG form (home)2.99Defensive xG form (home)3.34
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.