Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League C - 6
Estonia18:00
Mon 16 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BulgariaMost likelyEstonia win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Estonia win
Oddbert gives Estonia a 44% chance of winning.
44%Estonia
24%Draw
32%Bulgaria
In 100 matches like this, Estonia would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Estonia doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Estonia win 44, Draw 24, Bulgaria win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
44%1EstoniaEstonia win
24%XDrawDraw
32%2BulgariaBulgaria win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Estonia meet Bulgaria. The model leans only slightly toward Estonia in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Estonia (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estonia
- D0-0ICE
- W1-0LUX
- D0-0BUL
- D1-1ICE
- W4-2CYP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bulgaria
- W2-0LUX
- L0-3ICE
- D0-0EST
- L1-2LUX
- D2-2MOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estonia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bulgaria
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Estonia 0Draws 1Bulgaria 0
- BUL 0-0 EST
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estonia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Rasmus Peetson1G 1A5 apps
- Maksim Paskotsi1G 0A7 apps
- Mattias Käit1G 0A7 apps
Bulgaria
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Georgi Rusev1G 1A5 apps
- R. Kirilov1G 0A2 apps
- F. Krastev1G 0A4 apps
Line movement
Estonia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bulgaria—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Estonia in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1348Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a baseline, not our full model: it is our own simple model on its own, and the factors above describe it. A baseline claims no edge over the market.