Estoril vs Moreirense prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Estoril16:30
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MoreirenseMost likelyMoreirense win · 37%
Best price4.00 Betano
Prediction
34%1Estorilmarket 50%
29%XDrawmarket 26%
37%2Moreirensemarket 24%
Estoril-16.2 ppDraw+2.4 ppMoreirense+13.8 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Estorilpays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Moreirensepays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.00best |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.52 | 3.78 |
| Onexbet | 1.98best | 3.67best | 3.94 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Moreirense at 4.00 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
40.96units · 4.1% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estoril
- L1-2AV
- L1-2CP
- L0-1SB
- D0-0ARO
- L1-2BEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Moreirense
- L0-1GV
- D1-1VS
- W3-1MAR
- L0-4BEN
- L1-2FP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estoril
No reported absences.
Moreirense
No reported absences.
Head to head
Estoril 0Draws 3Moreirense 1
- MOR 1-0 EST
- EST 3-3 MOR
- MOR 2-2 EST
- EST 2-2 MOR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estoril
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.00last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.73last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Moreirense
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 8.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Line movement
Estoril—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Moreirense—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Moreirense result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-25.8Defensive xG form (home)1.57Rest-days edge-1.07Attacking xG form (away)0.98Recent form (home)0.50Home advantage (team-tuned)13.9
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.