Estoril vs Vitória SC prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Estoril17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Vitória SCMost likelyVitória SC win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Vitória SC win
Oddbert gives Vitória SC a 49% chance of winning.
31%Estoril
20%Draw
49%Vitória SC
In 100 matches like this, Vitória SC would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Vitória SC doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Estoril win 31, Draw 20, Vitória SC win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1EstorilEstoril win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2Vitória SCVitória SC win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Vitória SC (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estoril
- L0-4FP
- L1-3MOR
- L1-2AV
- L1-2CP
- L0-1SB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Vitória SC
- L1-2FP
- D0-0GV
- W5-0MAR
- L0-2BEN
- D1-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estoril
Absence data is not available for this match.
Vitória SC
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Estoril 2Draws 0Vitória SC 2
- EST 4-2 VS
- VS 3-2 EST
- EST 1-0 VS
- VS 1-0 EST
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estoril
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.62last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Yanis Begraoui2G 0A7 apps
- Ricard Sánchez1G 0A9 apps
- R. Guitane1G 0A9 apps
Vitória SC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 16.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 9
Key players
- Alan1G 2A5 apps
- Miguel Nogueira0G 3A8 apps
- A. Jakupovic2G 0A7 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 8,015
Line movement
Estoril—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Vitória SC—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Vitória SC result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-63.2What's at stake (away)0.10Defensive xG form (home)1.86Recent form (away)2.89Attacking xG form (away)0.90Home form (home)1.05
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.