Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9
Estrela16:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Casa PiaMost likelyEstrela win · 42%
Best price1.90 Onexbet
Prediction
42%1Estrelamarket 52%
29%XDrawmarket 26%
29%2Casa Piamarket 22%
Estrela-10.3 ppDraw+2.7 ppCasa Pia+7.6 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Estrelapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Casa Piapays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.48 | 4.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.90best | 3.62best | 4.38best |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Estrela at 1.90 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estrela
- L0-1ARO
- L0-2AV
- D3-3RA
- W2-1SB
- D2-2FAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Casa Pia
- L0-1SC
- W2-1EST
- L1-4FP
- D0-0VS
- L0-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estrela
No reported absences.
Casa Pia
No reported absences.
Head to head
Estrela 2Draws 0Casa Pia 2
- EST 4-0 CP
- CP 3-5 EST
- CP 1-0 EST
- EST 0-1 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estrela
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.95last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.79last 5
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 10
Casa Pia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.86last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.62last 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 9.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Line movement
Estrela—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Casa Pia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Estrela result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)4.18Defensive xG form (home)2.84Pi-rating edge0.27What's at stake (away)0.22Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)67.1Recent form (away)2.75
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.