Everton vs Chelsea prediction
Premier LeagueRound 7
Everton13:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ChelseaMost likelyChelsea win · 42%
Best price2.23 Onexbet
Prediction
32%1Evertonmarket 30%
26%XDrawmarket 25%
42%2Chelseamarket 45%
Everton+2.1 ppDraw+0.9 ppChelsea-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Evertonpays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Chelseapays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betvictor | 3.13 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.75 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 3.15 | 3.78 | 2.17 |
| Onexbet | 3.24best | 3.88best | 2.23best |
| Pinnacle | 3.19 | 3.74 | 2.21 |
| Sbo | 2.88 | 3.24 | 2.11 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Chelsea at 2.23 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Everton
- D2-2HC
- W1-0IPS
- D0-0TOT
- D2-2MU
- D1-1BOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Chelsea
- W5-1BOU
- L0-3BRE
- D2-2HC
- L1-2ARS
- W4-3BRI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Everton
No reported absences.
Chelsea
No reported absences.
Head to head
Everton 1Draws 1Chelsea 2
- EVE 3-0 CHE
- CHE 2-0 EVE
- CHE 1-0 EVE
- EVE 0-0 CHE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Everton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Chelsea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.26last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Line movement
Everton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Chelsea—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Chelsea result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Recent form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)1.80Recent form (away)4.80Home advantage (team-tuned)25.7League id39.0Recent form (home)4.75Rest-days edge-0.96
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.