Everton vs Liverpool prediction
Premier LeagueRound 12
Everton13:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LiverpoolMost likelyLiverpool win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Liverpool win
Oddbert gives Liverpool a 44% chance of winning.
30%Everton
26%Draw
44%Liverpool
In 100 matches like this, Liverpool would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Liverpool doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Everton win 30, Draw 26, Liverpool win 44.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
30%1EvertonEverton win
26%XDrawDraw
44%2LiverpoolLiverpool win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Everton meet Liverpool. The model leans only slightly toward Liverpool in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Liverpool (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Everton
- W3-1COV
- W1-0NEW
- L0-2ARS
- L0-2CHE
- D2-2HC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Liverpool
- W3-1CP
- L2-3FEN
- L0-1ARS
- W2-0BRI
- W4-3VIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Everton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Liverpool
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Everton 0Draws 1Liverpool 3
- EVE 1-2 LIV
- LIV 2-1 EVE
- LIV 1-0 EVE
- EVE 2-2 LIV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Everton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.46last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 8.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- T. Barry6G 1A10 apps
- K. Dewsbury-Hall3G 1A10 apps
- J. Tarkowski1G 1A10 apps
Liverpool
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.0last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- B. Barcola3G 3A10 apps
- A. Isak5G 0A8 apps
- F. Wirtz2G 3A10 apps
Line movement
Everton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Liverpool—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Liverpool in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.46Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-76.1What's at stake (away)0.19Expected goals (home)1.19Home advantage (team-tuned)27.7Recent form (home)5.65
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.