Excelsior vs Telstar prediction
EredivisieRound 14
Excelsior16:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
TelstarMost likelyTelstar win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Telstar win
Oddbert gives Telstar a 49% chance of winning.
31%Excelsior
20%Draw
49%Telstar
In 100 matches like this, Telstar would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Telstar doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Excelsior win 31, Draw 20, Telstar win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1ExcelsiorExcelsior win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2TelstarTelstar win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Telstar (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Excelsior
- L0-1GAE
- L0-9TWE
- L0-1FS
- L0-4HEE
- L1-5GRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Telstar
- D2-2FS
- W4-2UTR
- L2-3GAE
- L3-4FEY
- D2-2ADH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Excelsior
Absence data is not available for this match.
Telstar
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Excelsior 0Draws 2Telstar 0
- EXC 2-2 TEL
- TEL 2-2 EXC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Excelsior
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 9.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- I. Yegoian2G 3A10 apps
- A. Sliti3G 1A10 apps
- D. Garden2G 0A9 apps
Telstar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.26last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Key players
- T. Owusu5G 1A10 apps
- P. Brouwer2G 2A9 apps
- N. Shenkman1G 2A7 apps
Line movement
Excelsior—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Telstar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Telstar result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (away) and Defensive xG form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.60Defensive xG form (home)2.46Home form (home)1.99Home advantage (team-tuned)16.2Pi-rating edge-0.21Recent form (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.