Famalicao vs Alverca prediction
Primeira LigaRound 8Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicao21:15
Mon 12 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AlvercaMost likelyFamalicao win · 49%
Prediction
49%1Famalicaomarket 52%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
23%2Alvercamarket 21%
Famalicao-2.3 ppDraw+0.6 ppAlverca+1.7 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (sharp books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Match previewAI · grounded
In the upcoming Primeira Liga fixture, Famalicao prepares to host Alverca, a matchup where the statistical outlook favors the home side. Calibrated probabilities assign Famalicao a 49% chance of securing a win, while a draw is estimated at 28%, and Alverca holds a 23% probability of taking all three points. The model’s lean toward Famalicao is supported by two primary indicators: the Pi-rating edge and the team-tuned home advantage derived from the Elo difference. These factors collectively suggest that Famalicao enters the contest with a statistical profile that aligns with their favorite status. Conversely, the model identifies Alverca’s recent attacking expected goals (xG) form away from home as a countervailing factor, providing a counter-argument to the home team's dominance in the projections. Looking at recent results, Famalicao has experienced a mixed run of form, recording a win, three draws, and a loss in their last five outings. Alverca’s recent trajectory shows a slightly different pattern, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their most recent five fixtures. Historically, previous encounters between these two sides have been competitive, with their head-to-head records remaining roughly even, suggesting that neither team holds a significant psychological or stylistic dominance based on past meetings. Regarding squad availability, neither Famalicao nor Alverca has reported any injuries ahead of this match. It is important to note, however, that confirmed lineups have not yet been released. Therefore, while no absences have been reported, these figures do not account for potential squad rotation or the resting of starters, and the absence of injury reports should not be interpreted as an indication that either side will field their first-choice lineup. As the match approaches, the data suggests a competitive encounter where the home advantage for Famalicao plays a measurable role in the probability distribution.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Famalicaopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Alvercapays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.55best | 4.75best |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.34 | 4.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.94best | 3.48 | 4.38 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.39 | 4.72 |
| Sbo | 1.85 | 3.06 | 3.53 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
The best listed price is stale, so we size nothing against it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Famalicao
- W4-0NAC
- D1-1SC
- D2-2EST
- D0-0GV
- L0-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Alverca
- W1-0RA
- W3-1NAC
- L1-2SB
- D1-1SC
- L1-3SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Famalicao
No reported absences.
Alverca
No reported absences.
Head to head
Famalicao 1Draws 0Alverca 1
- FAM 1-0 ALV
- ALV 1-0 FAM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Famalicao
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.09last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Alverca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.35last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 10.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 13.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Line movement
Famalicao52%
Mon 12 Oct-0.1 pp
Draw27%
Mon 12 Oct+0.1 pp
Alverca21%
Mon 12 Oct+0.1 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model assigns a 49% probability to a Famalicao victory, with a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an Alverca win. This lean toward Famalicao is supported by their Pi-rating edge and a team-tuned home advantage derived from the Elo difference between the two sides. However, these indicators are partially offset by Alverca’s recent attacking expected goals (xG) form when playing away from home. With neither side reporting injuries and no confirmed lineups available to rule out potential squad rotation, the model reflects a competitive matchup where previous head-to-head results have also proven largely even.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.51Attacking xG form (away)1.92Recent form (home)4.81Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)183Defensive xG form (home)1.92Home form (home)5.44
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.