FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction
BundesligaRound 7
FC Augsburg15:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Union BerlinMost likelyFC Augsburg win · 53%
Best price1.78 Onexbet
Prediction
53%1FC Augsburgmarket 55%
25%XDrawmarket 23%
22%2Union Berlinmarket 22%
FC Augsburg-3.0 ppDraw+2.1 ppUnion Berlin+0.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | FC Augsburgpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Union Berlinpays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 4.25best | 4.25 |
| Onexbet | 1.78best | 4.20 | 4.61best |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FC Augsburg at 1.78 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FC Augsburg
- D2-2BM
- L2-3WB
- D2-2BL
- W4-1EF
- W3-0FS0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Union Berlin
- W1-0SE
- L0-7BM
- L1-3FS0
- L0-4BL
- D3-3EF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FC Augsburg
No reported absences.
Union Berlin
No reported absences.
Head to head
FC Augsburg 1Draws 1Union Berlin 2
- UB 4-0 FA
- FA 1-1 UB
- FA 1-2 UB
- UB 0-2 FA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FC Augsburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.86last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.0last 10
- Fouls
- 8.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.56last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.97last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Line movement
FC Augsburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Augsburg result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)2.97Attacking xG form (home)1.91Pi-rating edge0.50Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)154What's at stake (away)0.17Defensive xG form (away)2.22
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.