FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus prediction
SuperligaRound 11
FC Copenhagen18:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AarhusMost likelyFC Copenhagen win · 60%
Best price1.55 Onexbet
Prediction
60%1FC Copenhagenmarket 63%
22%XDrawmarket 20%
18%2Aarhusmarket 17%
FC Copenhagen-3.0 ppDraw+1.6 ppAarhus+1.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | FC Copenhagen | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50best |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.15 |
| Onexbet | 1.55best | 4.40best | 5.06 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FC Copenhagen at 1.55 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FC Copenhagen
- L1-2FM
- W1-0BRO
- W2-0AH
- W5-0ODE
- W2-0FN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Aarhus
- D2-2AH
- L0-2FN
- D2-2SIL
- L0-2FM
- L1-2RF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FC Copenhagen
No reported absences.
Aarhus
No reported absences.
Head to head
FC Copenhagen 3Draws 1Aarhus 2
- AAR 2-0 FC
- FC 2-3 AAR
- AAR 1-3 FC
- FC 3-1 AAR
- AAR 1-1 FC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FC Copenhagen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.70last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Aarhus
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.57last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Line movement
FC Copenhagen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Aarhus—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Copenhagen result here, shaped mainly by Recent form (away) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (away)1.52Attacking xG form (away)1.47Defensive xG form (home)1.74Pi-rating edge0.59Fixture congestion (away)0.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)186
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.