FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 3
FC Porto21:00
Tue 20 Oct
Prediction T-24h
PSV EindhovenMost likelyFC Porto win · 42%
Prediction
42%1FC Porto
38%XDraw
20%2PSV Eindhoven
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | FC Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FC Porto
- W2-1MAR
- W3-1BEN
- W4-1CP
- L0-2MC
- W2-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-0HEE
- L2-3TWE
- W4-1SR
- D1-1SD
- W3-1AJA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FC Porto
No reported absences.
PSV Eindhoven
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FC Porto
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.91last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 7
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.75last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.40last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.1last 10
- Shots
- 18.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Line movement
FC Porto—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Porto result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)239What's at stake (home)0.03Attacking xG form (home)1.85Away form (away)8.18League id2.00Pi-rating edge-0.06
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.