FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
BundesligaRound 6
FC Schalke 0415:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FSV Mainz 05Most likelyFSV Mainz 05 win · 43%
Best price2.44 Onexbet
Prediction
30%1FC Schalke 04market 33%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
43%2FSV Mainz 05market 41%
FC Schalke 04-3.0 ppDraw+1.0 ppFSV Mainz 05+2.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | FC Schalke 04pays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | FSV Mainz 05pays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
| Betvictor | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.65 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Onexbet | 2.98 | 3.70best | 2.44best |
| Pinnacle | 3.00best | 3.67 | 2.34 |
| Sbo | 2.70 | 3.36 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FSV Mainz 05 at 2.44 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
9.15units · 0.9% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FC Schalke 04
- L1-2SF
- D0-0SE
- W3-1UB
- D0-0BM
- L0-3FA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4BL
- W4-3BM
- L1-3EF
- W5-0HS
- D0-0SP0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FC Schalke 04
No reported absences.
FSV Mainz 05
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FC Schalke 04
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 5
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 5
- xG for / game
- 1.23last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.94last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 5
- BTTS
- 2 / 5
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 5
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 5
- Shots
- 10.4last 5
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 5
- Fouls
- 8.8last 5
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 5
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Line movement
FC Schalke 04—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FSV Mainz 05 result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Away form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-92.7Away form (away)10.5Attacking xG form (away)2.37League id78.0Defensive xG form (away)1.58Pi-rating edge-0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.