Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 2Groupama Aréna
Ferencvarosi TC21:00
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
PlzenMost likelyFerencvarosi TC win · 53%
Best price1.98 Betano
Prediction
53%1Ferencvarosi TCmarket 50%
23%XDrawmarket 25%
24%2Plzenmarket 25%
Ferencvarosi TC+3.4 ppDraw-1.3 ppPlzen-2.0 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Match previewAI · grounded
In this UEFA Europa League encounter, Ferencvárosi TC hosts Viktoria Plzeň, with the model’s calibrated probabilities pointing toward a lean for the home side. Ferencvárosi TC is assigned a 53% probability of securing a victory, compared to 24% for Viktoria Plzeň and a 23% probability of the match ending in a draw. This outlook positions the model slightly above the current market consensus regarding Ferencvárosi’s likelihood of winning. Several metrics drive this assessment. The model finds support for the Ferencvárosi lean in the team’s attacking expected goals (xG) form when playing at home. Simultaneously, the defensive xG form of Plzeň on the road has been a contributing factor favoring the host. Furthermore, when adjusting for team-tuned home advantage within the Elo ratings, the data indicates a favorable setup for Ferencvárosi. It is worth noting that while these statistical factors align with the model's lean, previous meetings between these two sides have been historically competitive and roughly even. Form heading into the fixture offers a distinct contrast between the two clubs. Ferencvárosi TC enters the match with strong recent momentum, recording four wins and one draw across their last five outings (W-W-W-D-W). Viktoria Plzeň’s recent trajectory has been more uneven, with a sequence of one win, two losses, and two draws in their most recent five matches (L-W-L-D-D). Regarding squad availability, there are no reported injuries for either team at this time. However, as confirmed lineups have yet to be finalized, these reports do not account for potential squad rotation or the resting of starters, and the absence of injury news should not be interpreted as a confirmation that either side will field a specific XI.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Ferencvarosi TCpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | Plzenpays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.98best | 3.80 | 3.95best |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.88best | 3.74 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Ferencvarosi TC at 1.98 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
13.56units · 1.4% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ferencvarosi TC
- W3-1CEL
- W4-0TRA
- W1-0TRA
- D1-1GZ
- W1-0GZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Plzen
- L0-3USG
- W5-1FCZ
- L0-3FCZ
- D1-1PAN
- D2-2PAN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ferencvarosi TC
No reported absences.
Plzen
No reported absences.
Head to head
Ferencvarosi TC 1Draws 1Plzen 1
- FT 1-1 PLZ
- PLZ 3-0 FT
- FT 1-0 PLZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ferencvarosi TC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.17last 1
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 1
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.7last 9
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 13.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Plzen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.84last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.21last 7
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 9
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 15.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Damian Sylwestrzak
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Groupama Aréna, Budapest
Line movement
Ferencvarosi TC—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Plzen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model assigns a 53% probability to a Ferencvarosi TC victory, with a draw at 23% and a Plzen win at 24%, suggesting a lean toward the home side. This output is driven by Ferencvarosi TC’s strong attacking xG form at home, paired with Plzen’s defensive xG metrics in away fixtures. Furthermore, the model incorporates an Elo-based calculation that accounts for a team-tuned home advantage, contributing to the model's stance being slightly more bullish on Ferencvarosi TC than the broader market. While both teams enter the fixture with no reported injuries, the model emphasizes these structural performance indicators over their historically even head-to-head record and recent form trends.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)3.43Attacking xG form (home)4.40Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)300What's at stake (away)0.00Fixture congestion (home)0.00Pi-rating edge0.34
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.