Feyenoord vs Excelsior prediction
EredivisieRound 13
Feyenoord18:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ExcelsiorMost likelyFeyenoord win · 83%
Best price1.15 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Feyenoord win
Oddbert gives Feyenoord a 83% chance of winning.
83%Feyenoord
11%Draw
6%Excelsior
In 100 matches like this, Feyenoord would win about 83. In the other 17 or so, Feyenoord doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Feyenoord win 83, Draw 11, Excelsior win 6.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
83%1FeyenoordFeyenoord winmarket 86%
11%XDrawDrawmarket 9%
6%2ExcelsiorExcelsior winmarket 5%
Our model vs market
Feyenoord -3.0 ppDraw +2.1 ppExcelsior +0.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Feyenoord | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | Excelsiorpays 25% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.15 | 8.50best | 16.50best |
| Marathonbet | 1.15best | 7.90 | 13.25 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Feyenoord at 1.15 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Feyenoord (83%), doesn't happen in about 17 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Feyenoord
- L3-5HEE
- L0-3INT
- D1-1FS
- D1-1PE
- L0-1RB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Excelsior
- L0-1GAE
- L0-9TWE
- L0-1FS
- L0-4HEE
- L1-5GRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Feyenoord
Absence data is not available for this match.
Excelsior
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Feyenoord 2Draws 0Excelsior 0
- FEY 2-1 EXC
- EXC 1-2 FEY
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Feyenoord
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.01last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.2last 10
- Shots
- 15.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- Nacho Ferri7G 2A10 apps
- A. Hadj-Moussa7G 1A10 apps
- L. Valente2G 3A10 apps
Excelsior
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 9.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- I. Yegoian2G 3A10 apps
- A. Sliti3G 1A10 apps
- D. Garden2G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Feyenoord—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Excelsior—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Feyenoord result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Goal drought (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.82Goal drought (away)4.00Expected goals (home)2.97Defensive xG form (away)2.46Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)264Recent form (home)1.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.