Finland vs San Marino prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League C - 6
Finland18:00
Sun 15 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
San MarinoMost likelyFinland win · 85%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Finland win
Oddbert gives Finland a 85% chance of winning.
85%Finland
13%Draw
2%San Marino
In 100 matches like this, Finland would win about 85. In the other 15 or so, Finland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Finland win 85, Draw 13, San Marino win 2.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
85%1FinlandFinland win
13%XDrawDraw
2%2San MarinoSan Marino win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Finland meet San Marino. The model leans toward Finland, shaped mainly by International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Finland (85%), doesn't happen in about 15 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Finland
- L0-1BEL
- W2-1ALB
- D0-0BEL
- W7-0SM
- L1-2HUN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
San Marino
- L1-2ALB
- L0-4BEL
- L0-3ALB
- L0-7FIN
- L1-2AZE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Finland
Absence data is not available for this match.
San Marino
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Finland 1Draws 0San Marino 0
- SM 0-7 FIN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Finland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Key players
- Leo Walta5G 1A10 apps
- Joel Pohjanpalo3G 0A9 apps
- O. Antman1G 2A6 apps
San Marino
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 3.0last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Key players
Player data from 5 of 10 matches
- Nicolas Giacopetti1G 0A5 apps
- Lorenzo Lazzari1G 0A3 apps
- Lorenzo Capicchioni0G 1A4 apps
Line movement
Finland—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
San Marino—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Finland, shaped mainly by International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)936Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a baseline, not our full model: it is our own simple model on its own, and the factors above describe it. A baseline claims no edge over the market.