Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
Serie ARound 9
Fiorentina20:45
Thu 29 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AtalantaMost likelyAtalanta win · 42%
Prediction
31%1Fiorentina
27%XDraw
42%2Atalanta
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fiorentina
- L1-2GEN
- D1-1NAP
- W4-2VEN
- L1-2TOR
- L0-3FRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atalanta
- W3-1VEN
- L0-2JUV
- L1-2CAG
- L1-2AR
- W1-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fiorentina
No reported absences.
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Head to head
Fiorentina 1Draws 1Atalanta 2
- FIO 1-1 ATA
- ATA 2-0 FIO
- FIO 1-0 ATA
- ATA 3-2 FIO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 8
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.48last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 8
Key players
- N. Krstović2G 1A1 apps
- F. Kessié1G 0A1 apps
- E. Elmas0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Fiorentina—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Atalanta result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)4.44Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-78.3Pi-rating edge-0.41What's at stake (home)0.07League id135Home advantage (team-tuned)20.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.