Fiorentina vs Cagliari prediction
Serie ARound 14
Fiorentina18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
CagliariMost likelyFiorentina win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Fiorentina win
Oddbert gives Fiorentina a 41% chance of winning.
41%Fiorentina
27%Draw
32%Cagliari
In 100 matches like this, Fiorentina would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Fiorentina doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Fiorentina win 41, Draw 27, Cagliari win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
41%1FiorentinaFiorentina win
27%XDrawDraw
32%2CagliariCagliari win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Fiorentina meet Cagliari. The model leans only slightly toward Fiorentina in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by League id and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Fiorentina (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fiorentina
- D2-2JUV
- W4-2SAS
- D2-2ATA
- L1-2INT
- L1-3COM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cagliari
- W1-0FRO
- L1-2LAZ
- L2-4AR
- L0-2BOL
- L0-4MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fiorentina
Absence data is not available for this match.
Cagliari
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Fiorentina 2Draws 1Cagliari 1
- FIO 1-2 CAG
- CAG 1-1 FIO
- CAG 1-2 FIO
- FIO 1-0 CAG
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.46last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 9
Key players
- A. Njie3G 2A9 apps
- Franco Mastantuono4G 0A10 apps
- Mateo Pellegrino4G 0A10 apps
Cagliari
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.24last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Key players
- D. Maldini5G 0A10 apps
- P. Mendy1G 2A10 apps
- M'Bala Nzola2G 0A4 apps
Line movement
Fiorentina—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cagliari—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Fiorentina in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by League id and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
League id135Attacking xG form (home)1.56Home form (home)2.88Defensive xG form (home)1.93Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)67.6Fixture congestion (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.