Fiorentina vs Como prediction
Serie ARound 7
Fiorentina15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ComoMost likelyComo win · 51%
Best price2.13 Onexbet
Prediction
24%1Fiorentinamarket 27%
25%XDrawmarket 25%
51%2Comomarket 48%
Fiorentina-2.9 ppDraw-0.1 ppComo+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Fiorentinapays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Comopays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Betvictor | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.70 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.70 | 2.07 |
| Onexbet | 3.52 | 3.81best | 2.13best |
| Pinnacle | 3.61best | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Sbo | 3.06 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Como at 2.13 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
19.00units · 1.9% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fiorentina
- L1-2GEN
- D1-1NAP
- W4-2VEN
- L1-2TOR
- L0-3FRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Como
- D0-0AR
- L0-2FRO
- W2-1PAR
- W4-1RL
- W4-1GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fiorentina
No reported absences.
Como
No reported absences.
Head to head
Fiorentina 2Draws 0Como 2
- COM 1-2 FIO
- FIO 1-2 COM
- FIO 0-2 COM
- COM 0-2 FIO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 8
Como
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.24last 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 10
- Shots
- 19.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.3last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Line movement
Fiorentina—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Como—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Como result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-169Pi-rating edge-0.57Attacking xG form (away)2.93Goal drought (away)2.00Away form (away)7.44League id135
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.